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Beijing has sent its coast guard through the maritime area of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past outlying Japanese territory as Beijing ramps up strains over the Japan's leader's remarks regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its ships conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Tokyo but also claimed by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

China and Japan have consistently clashed around the islands but the latest activity come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if Beijing assaults democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from China, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts the island as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “unification”. It has not ruled out the use of force. The island's administration and people overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An attack or invasion by China would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, potentially involving the US and other allies including Japan, which has land just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Military Activity

On the island, the military authorities said on Sunday morning that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one “official” ship, which was probably the coast guard, operating around the island over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones operating near the island and the Japan's territory off its north-east coast, appearing to go unusually near to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in recent weeks.

Earlier this weekend, the defense officials said Beijing had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted Taiwan had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. The island reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been experiencing increased strain from China since Takaichi made her comments, with China’s consul general in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Japan by stating that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

Beijing then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities stated that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

On Friday, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it provided no details.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, China’s government on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other powers, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

However, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards Taiwan.